What's on your mind?

[RelentlessOblivion]

Thanks mate

[Hungarino]

So sorry for your loss. Maybe its a small consolation that he didn't suffer. Thank you for taking care of your kitties and showing them love, that's all we can do.

[RelentlessOblivion]

31 minutes ago, Hungarino said:

So sorry for your loss. Maybe its a small consolation that he didn't suffer. Thank you for taking care of your kitties and showing them love, that's all we can do.

Thanks, yeah it helps.

[MacabreEternal]

Missed this, so sorry for your loss.

[GoatmasterGeneral]

A year of the Ukraine-Russia war, as it happened

 

[Dead1]

2 hours ago, GoatmasterGeneral said:

A year of the Ukraine-Russia war, as it happened

 

 

I was hoping the war would have a more disruptive effect on global capitalism but what does one expect when the Russians are involved - about the only time in last 200 years they had an effective (albeit monstrous) government let alone effective war machine was under a Georgian.

 

Oh and you can't make this up - head of UN COP28 climate talks runs one of the largest oil companies in the world.  Apparently this is not a conflict of interest.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/sultan-al-aber-united-nations-cop28-chief-under-fire-for-oil-ties-from-eu-and-us-lawmakers/

 

We are so fucked.

 

[GoatmasterGeneral]

5 minutes ago, Dead1 said:

I was hoping the war would have a more disruptive effect on global capitalism but what does one expect when the Russians are involved - about the only time in last 200 years they had an effective (albeit monstrous) government let alone effective war machine was under a Georgian.

Oh and you can't make this up - head of UN COP28 climate talks runs one of the largest oil companies in the world.  Apparently this is not a conflict of interest.

We are so fucked.

The big multinational corporations and the US military industrial complex and the billionaire oligarchs behind them all basically run the world now. It's been like this for quite awhile too, since WWII basically and anyone who doesn't understand this simply hasn't been paying attention.

Where else but the fossil fuel industry would you look for someone to chair the climate talks? It's like this in the US as well, many of the highest cabinet positions (unelected officials, appointed by the POTUS) are drawn from leaders of the industries they're meant to be regulating, (energy, pharma, insurance, defense) and they don't even try very hard to hide it anymore. Because they figured out that most people don't look that hard at it to see the corruption that's in plain sight, because sadly the average working American doesn't really understand or care about any of this shit.

Most of the pundits they have on the cable news programs each night that they bring in to promote the war are lobbyists for or former executives with ties to the boards of the largest defense contractors. Of course they'll publicly support any and all wars because ongoing never ending war puts money in their pockets. As a 'superpower' we've been involved in 32 armed conflicts in the 20th century and 12 already just in the first 23 years of the 21st century. And that's not even counting the ones like the current Russia-Ukraine war where we're giving/selling them shit tons of resources and equipment and training, but aren't officially on the books as an armed participant.

Any means neccessary to keep the war machine rolling, fuck the hundreds of thousands of innocents who get caught up in all the death and the destruction and the rape and the torture.

 

[Dead1]

Well said.

As  keep thinking: "the bad guys won."

Long bouts of peace do create this kind of thing and studies show inequality tends to shrink during periods of massive national trauma (ie the rich tend to get kicked in the nuts).

But after COVID and Russo-Ukrainian War failed to dent it  I think short of a nuclear war, the system is now impregnable.

 

Though I am also convinced the sheeples that are modern westerners deserve every single depravity that their leaders heap upon them.

[Hungarino]

5 hours ago, Dead1 said:

Though I am also convinced the sheeples that are modern westerners deserve every single depravity that their leaders heap upon them.

I'm curious Dead which time in history or what powerful nations ever had it worked out where there was general peace and the fruits of prosperity were shared fairly? What is the benchmark to compare against, or is it just an idealized vision of what could or should be?

History is a fucking bloodbath, the powerful have always run roughshod, and if you actually look at objective measures the post war era has brought unprecedented levels of peace (absolutely irrefutable) and prosperity. Not to mention revolutions in technology and the spread of liberal ideals.

Sure there are depravities of wealth and abuse of power and on and on, but when and where was it not much worse? We are living in a golden age, unfortunately part of the human condition is that we lack perspective to fully understand that fact.

Also, western capitalists did not cause the war in Ukraine. Putin the psychotic despot is solely responsible. 

[Dead1]

38 minutes ago, Hungarino said:

I'm curious Dead which time in history or what powerful nations ever had it worked out where there was general peace and the fruits of prosperity were shared fairly? What is the benchmark to compare against, or is it just an idealized vision of what could or should be?

History is a fucking bloodbath, the powerful have always run roughshod, and if you actually look at objective measures the post war era has brought unprecedented levels of peace (absolutely irrefutable) and prosperity. Not to mention revolutions in technology and the spread of liberal ideals.

Sure there are depravities of wealth and abuse of power and on and on, but when and where was it not much worse? We are living in a golden age, unfortunately part of the human condition is that we lack perspective to fully understand that fact.

I agree with your whole post.

 

However we are at the end of the golden age.  Things are getting worse across the English speaking world and chunks of Europe whilst rest of the world stagnates.  Here in Australia we've gone from income stagnation to income decline.  Homelessness and poverty are growing massively.  Accessing medical care gets more expensive and less accessible.  

And the golden age we live in is based on blood of those who proceeded before us - from Levellers in English Civil War to American and French revolutionaries to workers and unions and fear of successful Communist revolutions (probably the greatest contribution of Communism was fear of Communism).

Democracy itself is completely strangled by what is essentially legalised corruption.  It's at best dysfunctional and at worse designed to stifle any really improvements in living standards.

Every single international body is either useless (eg climate talks) or corrupt from the onset (eg IMF, World Bank). 

Basically the system no longer works to improve lives.

 

My kid will live in a far more fucked up world than I did and with far less opportunities.  

 

 

[Hungarino]

12 minutes ago, Dead1 said:

I agree with your whole post.

 

However we are at the end of the golden age.  Things are getting worse across the English speaking world and chunks of Europe whilst rest of the world stagnates.  Here in Australia we've gone from income stagnation to income decline.  Homelessness and poverty are growing massively.  Accessing medical care gets more expensive and less accessible.  

And the golden age we live in is based on blood of those who proceeded before us - from Levellers in English Civil War to American and French revolutionaries to workers and unions and fear of successful Communist revolutions (probably the greatest contribution of Communism was fear of Communism).

Democracy itself is completely strangled by what is essentially legalised corruption.  It's at best dysfunctional and at worse designed to stifle any really improvements in living standards.

Every single international body is either useless (eg climate talks) or corrupt from the onset (eg IMF, World Bank). 

Basically the system no longer works to improve lives.

 

My kid will live in a far more fucked up world than I did and with far less opportunities.  

 

 

Well I agree with your entire post too, so there!

I hope somehow we can recommit ourselves to our highest ideals, and be content with competent sober leaders and common sense solutions. Maybe innovation will get us out of the worst of the climate disaster.

But I fear it is a fantasy. In my command we plan and talk daily as if war with China won't devolve into world ending catastrophe. I think that is far from being a logical assumption. Scares the shit out me tbh.

[GoatmasterGeneral]

1 hour ago, Hungarino said:

Also, western capitalists did not cause the war in Ukraine. Putin the psychotic despot is solely responsible. 

I agree with your whole post too Hungalicious.

And I realize that comment wasn't aimed at me, but for the record I never said the western capitalist oligarchs caused the war in Ukraine, but they're happy as pigs in shit for it to keep going indefinitely. 

[BLAMO]

1 hour ago, Hungarino said:

 

Also, western capitalists did not cause the war in Ukraine. Putin the psychotic despot is solely responsible. 

We have a saying NE DIRAJ LAVA DOK SPAVA, translating : don't poke the lion while he sleeps. I personally think that Putin is not the only one to blame for the war and that many people very relieved when it started.

Maybe because of my geographical location or history or I don't know what but I think that USA somehow had a really big part in the start of the war

 

[Dead1]

5 hours ago, BLAMO said:

We have a saying NE DIRAJ LAVA DOK SPAVA, translating : don't poke the lion while he sleeps. I personally think that Putin is not the only one to blame for the war and that many people very relieved when it started.

Maybe because of my geographical location or history or I don't know what but I think that USA somehow had a really big part in the start of the war

 

I agree.  The Americans wanted the war in Ukraine.  Note between 2014 and 2022 US never tried to resolve the conflict through diplomacy (Germans and French did).  Note the US also never provided Ukraine any real military assistance on 2014-22.  

High level American foreign policy experts like Kissinger and Kennan warned US not to pursue incorporation of Ukraine into NATO.

 

Basically Uncle Sam laid a trap for the Russian bear. They knew how the bear thought and they knew the bear would take the bait.*

The war has been a success for American policy beyond its wildest dreams.  America hoped for a long yerm Ukrainian insurgency to bleed Russia.  Instead it got ths total humiliation of Russia, the destruction of the modern Russian army and Russia being involved in a far more costly conventional war.

 

 

*US too would take the bait if say Canada switched sides and entered into a military alliance with China.

 

[Hungarino]

8 hours ago, GoatmasterGeneral said:

I agree with your whole post too Hungalicious.

And I realize that comment wasn't aimed at me, but for the record I never said the western capitalist oligarchs caused the war in Ukraine, but they're happy as pigs in shit for it to keep going indefinitely. 

I don't know that much about what has really been going on over there. Not my geographical area of concern.

I do work with a Ukrainian who was telling me that the reason the Russians thought it would be a 3 day war was because there were some high level collaborators in the Ukrainian govt. who were expected to facilitate a fairly bloodless take over. 

It illustrated a point that for outside observers these regional dramas have such a level of complexity and long histories and personal entanglements that they are basically opaque to proper our understanding. It reminds me of how we continually stumble into conflicts thinking we know good guys from bad guys and it is as simple as that. Americans especially fall into that trap, and often appear naive when our partners have to explain what is really going on on the ground. Yet for decades we send people on 1 year rotations to try and resolve long standing ethnic and tribal disputes in places no one understands, and scratch our heads when shit doesn't work. Hopefully we are not stumbling into something worse this time, but all I can say is that the nukes are the only thing keeping Western air power from utterly obliterating the pathetic and tragic joke that is the Russian army, if you can even call it that.

[GoatmasterGeneral]

2 hours ago, Hungarino said:

I don't know that much about what has really been going on over there. Not my geographical area of concern.

As special attaché to the joint chiefs of staff you know a lot more than you're letting on Hungadoodle, but if you told me then you'd probably have to kill me.

[Dead1]

When I talk about how mess

8 hours ago, Hungarino said:

I don't know that much about what has really been going on over there. Not my geographical area of concern.

I do work with a Ukrainian who was telling me that the reason the Russians thought it would be a 3 day war was because there were some high level collaborators in the Ukrainian govt. who were expected to facilitate a fairly bloodless take over. 

It illustrated a point that for outside observers these regional dramas have such a level of complexity and long histories and personal entanglements that they are basically opaque to proper our understanding. It reminds me of how we continually stumble into conflicts thinking we know good guys from bad guys and it is as simple as that. Americans especially fall into that trap, and often appear naive when our partners have to explain what is really going on on the ground. Yet for decades we send people on 1 year rotations to try and resolve long standing ethnic and tribal disputes in places no one understands, and scratch our heads when shit doesn't work. Hopefully we are not stumbling into something worse this time, but all I can say is that the nukes are the only thing keeping Western air power from utterly obliterating the pathetic and tragic joke that is the Russian army, if you can even call it that.

The problem with Americans (and Australians) is that they assume all other people are essentially Americans.   

 

The American attitude is best described by following quote from Full Metal Jacket (I've replaced the racial slur with (Vietnamese) because you get in trouble for that shit in this day and age).

Quote

We are here to help the Vietnamese, because inside every (Vietnamese) there is an American trying to get out."

 

Australians are the same.  They think culture is food and funny religious clothes.  They don't get that it affects world view, relationships and how people think.

 

----

As to how fucked Australia is getting, here's some sobering stats:

 

1. Population growing rapidly.

2, Dollar amount spent on food is up 11% over long term trend.

3. Volume  of food sold is down 5%

So more people are going hungry.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2023/may/25/australia-might-not-be-in-a-recession-but-households-are-about-to-feel-as-if-they-are

[RelentlessOblivion]

Mutually assured destruction probably doesn’t appeal to Vlad so I don’t think nukes are as much of a deterrent as it is clear western involvement in the conflict would provoke China. I think most world powers are keen to try and avoid actually starting world war three.

western involvement in the conflict would provoke China. I think most world powers are keen to try and avoid actually starting world war three.

 

Also, I’ve got the flu, as if life couldn’t get any more shit.

[Dead1]

2 hours ago, RelentlessOblivion said:

Mutually assured destruction probably doesn’t appeal to Vlad so I don’t think nukes are as much of a deterrent as it is clear western involvement in the conflict would provoke China. I think most world powers are keen to try and avoid actually starting world war three.

western involvement in the conflict would provoke China. I think most world powers are keen to try and avoid actually starting world war three.

 

Also, I’ve got the flu, as if life couldn’t get any more shit.

 

 

China hasn't done war since 1979.  Sure they might send Vlad some weapons if west intervenes but I think they'd just munch popcorn and see what comes of it.  I also doubt they would attack Taiwan as anything in Europe is a ground war and most the USN stays put.

 

I am actually surprised Russia didn't used tactical nukes early on when the war ground to a halt.

 

And they nominally have some sort of rational to use nukes now with Ukrainians and their affiliates openly attacking over border.  

 

 

 

[RelentlessOblivion]

7 minutes ago, Dead1 said:

 

 

China hasn't done war since 1979.  Sure they might send Vlad some weapons if west intervenes but I think they'd just munch popcorn and see what comes of it.  I also doubt they would attack Taiwan as anything in Europe is a ground war and most the USN stays put.

 

I am actually surprised Russia didn't used tactical nukes early on when the war ground to a halt.

 

And they nominally have some sort of rational to use nukes now with Ukrainians and their affiliates openly attacking over border.  

 

 

Again though if Russia do use links, and seeing the quality or lack there of of their military equipment, I doubt there’s even work, they can expect fairly Swift retaliation. As far as China goes hey, Bing posturing regarding Taiwan for a decade or more at this point, I don’t see the point in saying, we are going to take back our land now, if they don’t actually plan on doing something. 

 

[Hungarino]

4 hours ago, RelentlessOblivion said:

Mutually assured destruction probably doesn’t appeal to Vlad so I don’t think nukes are as much of a deterrent as it is clear western involvement in the conflict would provoke China. I think most world powers are keen to try and avoid actually starting world war three.

western involvement in the conflict would provoke China. I think most world powers are keen to try and avoid actually starting world war three.

 

Also, I’ve got the flu, as if life couldn’t get any more shit.

Sorry to hear that RO. Definitely not what you needed right now. Feel better mate.

1 hour ago, RelentlessOblivion said:

if they don’t actually plan on doing something. 

this is what keeps us up at night, no exaggeration. 

[Dead1]

1 hour ago, RelentlessOblivion said:

Again though if Russia do use links, and seeing the quality or lack there of of their military equipment, I doubt there’s even work, they can expect fairly Swift retaliation. As far as China goes hey, Bing posturing regarding Taiwan for a decade or more at this point, I don’t see the point in saying, we are going to take back our land now, if they don’t actually plan on doing something. 

 

Retaliation from who?  If Russia nukes some Ukrainian airbase or even Lviv, you think America is going to risk getting nuked itself?

If even only a quarter of Russia's nukes work that's game over - that's literally 400 odd nuclear warheads hitting US and Europe.  You don't have to be accurate with nukes either.  A Kh22 might a circular error of probability of 5 km but that matters little when it's carrying a 350 - 1000 kiloton warhead.  

 

As for Taiwan, no it's not a decade or more of posturing.  It's 74 years of low level conflict for first 30 years (artillery duels, aerial and naval battles, some amphibious assaults) and then a tense peace since 1970s.  It's the continuation of a civil war that started in 1927 (96 years ago).

Most people don't know Taiwan is formally called the Republic of China and it's government is actually a continuation of Chiang Kai-Shek's nationalist regime that ruled mainland China up to 1949.  In WWII Chang Kai Shek was an American ally.

In 1949 his forces lost control of mainland China and escaped to Taiwan and some other islands (including some successfully recaptured by China eg Hainan - currently one of  Communist China's main submarine bases).

Republic of China (aka Taiwan) was recognised by UN as legitimate Chinese government until 1971, even though it had not controlled the mainland for 21 years.

Republic of China (aka Taiwan) still clams to be rightful ruler of all China.  It's still claims to be part of China.  The Kuomintang which is one of the major political parties in China (and Chiang Kai Shek's party) does not support Taiwanese independence at all.

[RelentlessOblivion]

I admit my knowledge regarding China and Taiwan, and Hong Kong, for that matter, is probably not where it needs to be in order to have that discussion. Regarding Russia, nuking Ukraine, I do think the Western allies would retaliate with nuclear Fire of their own, and I doubt there would be a Russia left to do anything about it afterwards. Of course, that would probably prompt North Korea, China, and Iran into launching, then nukes, mutually assured destruction, but come on when have the American military ever made a smart decision? t I la

[GoatmasterGeneral]

2 hours ago, RelentlessOblivion said:

I admit my knowledge regarding China and Taiwan, and Hong Kong, for that matter, is probably not where it needs to be in order to have that discussion. Regarding Russia, nuking Ukraine, I do think the Western allies would retaliate with nuclear Fire of their own, and I doubt there would be a Russia left to do anything about it afterwards. Of course, that would probably prompt North Korea, China, and Iran into launching, then nukes, mutually assured destruction, but come on when have the American military ever made a smart decision? t I la

The two bombs we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 were 13 and 16 kilotons respectively. The standard ICBM's (nuclear missiles) of today typically carry loads of 500 to 800 kilotons and some up to 1 megaton (1,000 kilotons). We're not fucking using our nukes in Europe no matter what you might hear on the news. (And by 'we' I mean the US and NATO forces) We're just not, it would be absolute suicide. Even worst case if that POS Putin were to deploy some of his (which I seriously doubt, because I believe he would have already used them by now if he was so inclined) I believe we still wouldn't use ours. If any nation were to use nukes ever again it'd likely be one of those loose cannon wild card states like Iran or the Norks who think they have nothing to lose. Of course right now the threat of Russian nukes is literally the only thing keeping the USAF from bombing Russia back into the fucking stone age. Say what you will about the US military but our air superiority is second to none. Threat of nukes is the only card Vlad holds so obviously he has no choice but to play this up and create enough uncertainty to cause the world to speculate if he'll use them or not. The mental stress this little dude is under must be off the charts. If he snaps one day we could all be royally fucked.

As far as Taiwan is concerned this feud goes way back to before WWII. When the great war ended the Chinese went back to their civil war between the Chinese Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek and the CCP aka the People's Republic of China (PRC) formed in 1921 and led by Chairman Mao. Long story short as the commies grew more powerful they gained the upper hand, and then Dec '49 they executed a multi-pronged attack against the Free China Nationalists which took 4 capitals and basically won the civil war, at which time the Chinese Nationalist govt who go by the Republic of China (ROC) retreated to the island of Taiwan (which was still known as Formosa back then) along with ssome military that were loyal to them and some wealthy elites and business leaders. This was 1949 and they've been squabbing ever since.

Both factions have always claimed to be the one real true government of China, and for the next 30 years the ROC's stated mission was to retake the Chinese mainland and reunify the Chinese people. But obviously 23 million people on a small island half the size of Tasmania vs 1.4 billion on the Chinese mainland, the PRC feels like they've won this and that Taiwan should stop being such big babies and submit to come back under their control. PRC still refuses to let any other countries officially recognize little Taiwan as a sovereign nation if they want to maintain diplomatic and trade relations with the PRC. To this day the US does not have 'official' reations with Taiwan, although we do have unofficial friendly relations and we actually do a lot of busines with them because they make over 60% of the world's semiconductor chips on that little island.

[Dead1]

3 hours ago, RelentlessOblivion said:

I admit my knowledge regarding China and Taiwan, and Hong Kong, for that matter, is probably not where it needs to be in order to have that discussion. Regarding Russia, nuking Ukraine, I do think the Western allies would retaliate with nuclear Fire of their own, and I doubt there would be a Russia left to do anything about it afterwards. Of course, that would probably prompt North Korea, China, and Iran into launching, then nukes, mutually assured destruction, but come on when have the American military ever made a smart decision? t I la

It takes 30 minutes for a ballistic missile to impact target.  That is more than enough time for Russia to detect mass missile launch and launch its own missiles.

Don't believe the BS of nothing working in Russia.  If they were so incompetent and so useless they would have lost the war by now.  

Remember these people still maintain a successful manned space program when NASA's own collapsed 12 years ago.

 

So America  launches nukes, within 15 mins all Russian nukes are in the air and it is game over.

 

Also I doubt Norks and China would launch if not deliberately targetted.

Both regimes are actually brutally rational with their primary purpose being survival.

In case of a US-Russia nuclear conflagration,China is left standing (until nuclear winter sets in).